Webcast: Climate-Security Connections — An Empirical Approach to Risk Assessment

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Climate-Security Connections: An Empirical Approach to Risk Assessment

featuring

Charles Vörösmarty, Professor, Water Systems Analysis Group, University of New Hampshire, on "Drought as a Contributor to Civil War: Results from a Global Spatial Analysis"

Marc Levy, Associate Director, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, on "Monitoring Climate Within Global Conflict 'Hotspots': How to do Better"

Nils Petter Gleditsch, Working Group Leader, Center for the Study of Civil War, International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), and Editor, Journal of Peace Research

Tuesday, March 6, 2007
12:00 noon - 2:00 p.m.
5th Floor Conference Room
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW

Webcast video archive will be made available at www.wilsoncenter.org

An increased understanding of the relationship between environment and conflict can result from integrating physical data with conflict data. This activity, and deriving the benefits from it, are at the heart of a new research effort led by Charles Vörösmarty of the University of New Hampshire's Water Systems Analysis Group and by Marc Levy at Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

In his presentation "Drought as a Contributor to Civil War: Results from a Global Spatial Analysis," Vörösmarty will present the research of their interdisciplinary team that created a global database combining spatial information on the emergence of civil war with grids on rainfall and streamflow. He will discuss the team's finding that shocks-or significant departures from normal water availability-matter most in the emergence of civil war. In regions experiencing low-level conflict, the risk of escalation to full-scale civil war approximately doubles immediately following a year of abnormally low rainfall. Levy's presentation, "Monitoring Climate within Global Conflict 'Hotspots': How to do Better," builds on the team's empirical work, and demonstrates how such knowledge can be put to practical use. The presentation will show that overlaying global spatial databases of current conflict "hotspots" with digital data of current and forecasted rainfall can potentially improve conflict risk assessments.

If you are interested, but unable to attend the event, please tune into the live or archived webcast at www.wilsoncenter.org. The webcast will begin approximately 10 minutes after the posted meeting time. You will need Windows Media Player to watch the webcast. To download the free player, visit: http://www.microsoft.com/windows/windowsmedia/download.

Location: Woodrow Wilson Center at the Ronald Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW ("Federal Triangle" stop on Blue/Orange Line), 5th Floor Conference Room. A map to the Center is available at www.wilsoncenter.org/directions. Note: Due to heightened security, entrance to the building will be restricted and photo identification is required. Please allow additional time to pass through security.